IPCC Szenarien
Donnerstag, 08. Mai 2008http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/098.htm
The A1 marker scenario (Jiang et al., 2000) was created with the AIM model, an integrated assessment model developed by NIES, Japan (see Appendix IV). The A1 scenario family is characterized by:
- An affluent world, with a rapid demographic transition (declining mortality and fertility rates) and an increasing degree of international development equity.
- Very high productivity and economic growth in all regions, with a considerable catch-up of developing countries.
- Comparatively high energy and materials demands, moderated however by continuous structural change and the diffusion of more efficient technologies, consistent with the high productivity growth and capital turnover rates of the scenario.
The first group of A1 scenarios, which includes the A1B marker, assumes “balanced”6 progress across all resources and technologies from energy supply to end use, as well as “balanced” land-use changes.
The B1 marker scenario (de Vries et al., 2000) was developed using the IMAGE 2.1 model (see Appendix IV). Earlier versions of the model were used in the first IPCC scenario development effort (SA90). B1 illustrates the possible emissions implications of a scenario in which the world chooses consistently and effectively a development path that favors efficiency of resource use and “dematerialization” of economic activities. The scenario entails in particular:
- Rapid demographic transition driven by rapid social development, including education.
- High economic growth in all regions, with significant catch-up in the presently less-developed regions that leads to a substantial reduction in present income disparities.
- Comparatively small increase in energy demand because of dematerialization of economic activities, saturation of material- and energy-intensive activities (e.g., car ownership), and effective innovation and implementation of measures to improve energy efficiency.
- Timely and effective development of non-fossil energy supply options in response to the desire for a clean local and regional environment and to the gradual depletion of conventional oil and gas supplies.